A Simulation Model for Jakarta Flood Evacuation

The RESilient Emergency Preparedness for Natural Disaster Response via Operational Research (RESPOND-OR) research project, led by Lancaster University’s Centre for Transport and Logistics (CENTRAL), aims to solve challenges and improve natural disaster emergency preparedness and response. The RESPOND-OR project will provide a Decision Support System to help with decisions such as: I disaster relief supply allocation and distribution, ii) population evacuation, and iii) emergency response personnel scheduling and routing. The project, which is funded by the UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council’s Global Challenge Research Fund (EPSRC/GCRF) program*, brings together a multinational, interdisciplinary research team from the United Kingdom (Lancaster University), Indonesia (Universitas Gadjah Mada and Universitas Indonesia), and Sudan (Universitas Indonesia) (University of Khartoum). The research team is collaborating closely with important stakeholders from both Indonesia and Sudan who represent disaster management organizations. The National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), the Yogyakarta Special Region Disaster Management Agency (BPBD DIY), and the Humanitarian Forum Indonesia are the primary stakeholders in Indonesia (HFI). The goal is to make sure that the project deliverables are in line with the needs of the stakeholders.

The UGM team, which includes Bertha Maya Sopha, Ph.D., Hilya Mudrika Arini, Ph.D., and Sekar Sakti, M.Sc., is working on a simulation model to predict the evacuation time and number of evacuated residents (both aided and self-evacuated) for flood evacuation in Jakarta. Between October 2020 and March 2021, empirical data was collected and a conceptual model was developed. The initial iteration of simulation, which will be released in April 2021, will integrate agent-based modeling and discrete-event simulation. It replicates the evacuation of residents from their homes. Trucks and rubber boats are used to simulate actual response actions throughout the evacuation procedure. In June 2021, the initial simulation model was presented to BPNB and NGOs at a verification workshop. The simulation model can be used as an experimental tool to help better create a flood evacuation plan for Jakarta.

*) Grant number A103953.

                                                                         

Research team :

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